Add 'brainsteam/content/annotations/2022/12/19/1671458951.md'

brainsteam/content/annotations/2022/12/19/1671458951.md

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+---
+date: '2022-12-19T14:09:11'
+hypothesis-meta:
+  created: '2022-12-19T14:09:11.863238+00:00'
+  document:
+    title:
+    - My AI Safety Lecture for UT Effective Altruism
+  flagged: false
+  group: __world__
+  hidden: false
+  id: tmH8RH-mEe27ArstPwKXEA
+  links:
+    html: https://hypothes.is/a/tmH8RH-mEe27ArstPwKXEA
+    incontext: https://hyp.is/tmH8RH-mEe27ArstPwKXEA/scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823
+    json: https://hypothes.is/api/annotations/tmH8RH-mEe27ArstPwKXEA
+  permissions:
+    admin:
+    - acct:ravenscroftj@hypothes.is
+    delete:
+    - acct:ravenscroftj@hypothes.is
+    read:
+    - group:__world__
+    update:
+    - acct:ravenscroftj@hypothes.is
+  tags:
+  - nlproc
+  target:
+  - selector:
+    - endContainer: /div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div[1]/p[43]
+      endOffset: 779
+      startContainer: /div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div[1]/p[43]
+      startOffset: 174
+      type: RangeSelector
+    - end: 16443
+      start: 15838
+      type: TextPositionSelector
+    - exact: " And famously, self-driving cars have taken a lot longer than many people\
+        \ expected a decade ago.  This is partly because of regulatory barriers and\
+        \ public relations: even if a self-driving car actually crashes less than\
+        \ a human does, that\u2019s still not good enough, because when it does crash\
+        \ the circumstances are too weird.  So, the AI is actually held to a higher\
+        \ standard.  But it\u2019s also partly just that there was a long tail of\
+        \ really weird events.  A deer crosses the road, or you have some crazy lighting\
+        \ conditions\u2014such things are really hard to get right, and of course\
+        \ 99% isn\u2019t good enough here."
+      prefix: ' the last jobs to be automated. '
+      suffix: '
+
+
+
+
+        We can maybe fuzzily see ahe'
+      type: TextQuoteSelector
+    source: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823
+  text: I think the emphasis is wrong here. The regulation is secondary. The long
+    tail of weird events is the more important thing.
+  updated: '2022-12-19T14:09:11.863238+00:00'
+  uri: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823
+  user: acct:ravenscroftj@hypothes.is
+  user_info:
+    display_name: James Ravenscroft
+in-reply-to: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823
+tags:
+- nlproc
+- hypothesis
+type: annotation
+url: /annotations/2022/12/19/1671458951
+
+---
+
+
+
+ <blockquote> And famously, self-driving cars have taken a lot longer than many people expected a decade ago.  This is partly because of regulatory barriers and public relations: even if a self-driving car actually crashes less than a human does, that’s still not good enough, because when it does crash the circumstances are too weird.  So, the AI is actually held to a higher standard.  But it’s also partly just that there was a long tail of really weird events.  A deer crosses the road, or you have some crazy lighting conditions—such things are really hard to get right, and of course 99% isn’t good enough here.</blockquote>I think the emphasis is wrong here. The regulation is secondary. The long tail of weird events is the more important thing.