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brainsteam/content/posts/2024/11/so-ai-wont-scale-what-next.md

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 So what happens next if these rumours are true and where does that leave the AI bubble? How quickly and likely are we to break out of a plateau and get to more intelligent models?
 
+**Update: Overnight [Ilya Sutskever himself](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-rivals-seek-new-path-smarter-ai-current-methods-hit-limitations-2024-11-11/) has added his voice to the choir of experts claiming that the scaling laws have hit a wall. This is a significant inflection point since Sutskever is responsible for leading much of OpenAI's work on GPT-3 and GPT-4 before leaving to start his own research company earlier this year. He is big on AGI and superintelligence so this admission carries a lot of weight.***
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 ## A Brief History of LLMs and How We Got Here
 
 To those unfamiliar with AI and NLP research, ChatGPT might appear to have been an overnight sensation from left field. However, science isn't a "big bang" that happens in a vaccum. Sudden-seeming breakthroughs are usually the result of many years of incremental research reaching an inflection point. GPT-4o and friends would not be possible without the invention of The Transformer 5 years prior and a number of smaller advancements leading up to the launch of ChatGPT in 2022.