brainsteam.co.uk/brainsteam/content/annotations/2022/12/19/1671458951.md

date	hypothesis-meta	in-reply-to	tags	type	url
2022-12-19T14:09:11	created document flagged group hidden id links permissions tags target text updated uri user user_info 2022-12-19T14:09:11.863238+00:00 title My AI Safety Lecture for UT Effective Altruism false __world__ false tmH8RH-mEe27ArstPwKXEA html incontext json https://hypothes.is/a/tmH8RH-mEe27ArstPwKXEA https://hyp.is/tmH8RH-mEe27ArstPwKXEA/scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823 https://hypothes.is/api/annotations/tmH8RH-mEe27ArstPwKXEA admin delete read update acct:ravenscroftj@hypothes.is acct:ravenscroftj@hypothes.is group:__world__ acct:ravenscroftj@hypothes.is nlproc selector source endContainer endOffset startContainer startOffset type /div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div[1]/p[43] 779 /div[2]/div[2]/div[2]/div[1]/p[43] 174 RangeSelector end start type 16443 15838 TextPositionSelector exact prefix suffix type And famously, self-driving cars have taken a lot longer than many people expected a decade ago. This is partly because of regulatory barriers and public relations: even if a self-driving car actually crashes less than a human does, that’s still not good enough, because when it does crash the circumstances are too weird. So, the AI is actually held to a higher standard. But it’s also partly just that there was a long tail of really weird events. A deer crosses the road, or you have some crazy lighting conditions—such things are really hard to get right, and of course 99% isn’t good enough here. the last jobs to be automated. We can maybe fuzzily see ahe TextQuoteSelector https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823 I think the emphasis is wrong here. The regulation is secondary. The long tail of weird events is the more important thing. 2022-12-19T14:09:11.863238+00:00 https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823 acct:ravenscroftj@hypothes.is display_name James Ravenscroft	https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6823	nlproc hypothesis	annotation	/annotations/2022/12/19/1671458951

And famously, self-driving cars have taken a lot longer than many people expected a decade ago. This is partly because of regulatory barriers and public relations: even if a self-driving car actually crashes less than a human does, that’s still not good enough, because when it does crash the circumstances are too weird. So, the AI is actually held to a higher standard. But it’s also partly just that there was a long tail of really weird events. A deer crosses the road, or you have some crazy lighting conditions—such things are really hard to get right, and of course 99% isn’t good enough here.

I think the emphasis is wrong here. The regulation is secondary. The long tail of weird events is the more important thing.